Annual Report 2018

51 年報 ANNUAL REPORT 2018 管理層論述及分析 MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS The Directors are of the view that the lapse of the Second Supplemental MOU does not have any material adverse impact on the business operation and financial position of the Group. However, the Group will maintain dialogue with Zaozhuang Mining Group should the opportune timing and projects arise in the future. BUSINESS OUTLOOK Against the backdrop of a slew of weakening economic data from various sizeable economies of the globe, the corollary of general consumers’ and investors’ confidence is fidgety and cautious. Albeit there are signs that the Sino- US trade debacle might arrive to an agreeable solution, the negotiation process is expected to drag on and there will always be a lingering concern as to whether the trade balance scuffle is a mere front of a larger political and international leadership scrimmage. In order to counter the uncertainties and the probable decline in economic growth, the government and the central banks of most developed economies are or expected to embark upon a dovish approach in interest rate normalization, balance sheet reduction and/or even the resumption of quantitative easing. The Central Government of the PRC has also announced a number of relief measures such as value-added tax reduction, reduction in electricity charges and access to capital/credit initiatives on boosting consumption and encouraging investments, particularly for small and medium enterprises, which would help stabilizing the demand for automobiles, tyres and hence, steel cord. On the supply side, we believe there will be more relocation of production capacity of steel cord as opposed to new capacity addition. In this connection, we do not expect a major shift in the dynamic of the steel cord market which continues to edge towards equilibrium amidst the trade and economic uncertainties in 2019. 董事認為，第二份補充諒解備忘錄失效對本集 團之業務營運及財務狀況並無任何重大不利影 響。然而，倘未來有適當的時機和項目，本集 團將與棗莊礦業集團保持對話。 業務展望 在全球各大經濟體經濟數據疲弱的背景下，一 般消費者和投資者的信心必然是不安和謹慎。 儘管有跡象顯示中美貿易撕裂可能會達成解決 方案，但預計談判進程將繼續拖延，並對於貿 易平衡鬥爭是否僅僅為更大的政治和國際領導 人混戰將有一種揮之不去的擔憂。為了應對不 確定性和經濟增長的下降可能性，政府和大多 數發展中經濟體的中央銀行正在或預計將採取 溫和的方式進行利率正常化，資產負債表減少 和╱或甚至恢復量化寬鬆。中國中央政府亦宣 布了一系列減免措施，如增值稅減免、電費下 調及獲取資本╱信貸措施，以促進消費和鼓勵 投資，特別是對中小企業而言，將有助於穩定 對汽車、輪胎和鋼簾線的需求。在供應方面， 我們認為將有更多鋼簾線生產能力的重整，而 不是新增產能。就此而言，在二零一九年的貿 易和經濟不確定性中，我們預計鋼簾線市場的 動態不會發生重大轉變，並繼續趨於平穩。