Annual Report 2019

38 SHOUGANG CONCORD CENTURY HOLDINGS LIMITED 首長寶佳集團有限公司 MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS 管理層論述及分析 業務展望 香港在二零一九年經歷了各種敏感挑戰，特別 是在中美貿易爭執的焦點下，下半年開始了不 斷的社會示威活動，最嚴重的是最近的冠狀病 毒危機導致，並將繼續限制人力資源的流動、 折磨物流的正常業務營運及二零二零年全球 經濟的不確定性。在這些不利的情況及我們尚 未知道如何及何時能遏制冠狀病毒的感染， 我們預期與本集團二零一九年的強勁表現相 比，第一季度將表現落後。我們相信，鋼簾線 和輪胎行業的供求動態在短期內將保持穩定， 但是這兩個行業的更多參與者正將各自的產 能轉移至國外以規避中美貿易爭端，儘管第一 階段貿易協議已經達成。輪胎製造設施的搬遷 將為本集團創造更多的出口機會。簡而言之， 我們仍然希望，我們的業務將在二零二零年下 半年逐步恢復正常，主要因為輪胎製造客戶的 庫存水平低，中央政府在財政和貨幣方面的明 顯刺激措施，以及從長遠來看，中國替換輪胎 市場的潛力。 BUSINESS OUTLOOK Hong Kong experienced various tactile challenges in 2019 notably in the crosshair of the Sino-American trade squabble, unremitting social demonstrations commenced in the latter half of the year and most critical of all, the recent coronavirus crisis which caused and will continue to cause restricted movement in human resources, torment in logistics for normal business activities and uncertainties in the global economy in 2020. Under these untoward circumstances and that we have not yet known how and when the coronavirus infection can be contained, we envisage the performance of the Group in the first quarter will be lagging when compared with our stalwart results in 2019. We believe that the demand and supply dynamics of the Steel cord and tyres sectors remain stable in the short run, but more participants in both sectors are relocating their respective production capacities abroad to circumvent US and China trade dispute albeit Phase 1 of the trade agreement has been reached. The relocation of tyres making facilities should create more export opportunities for our Group. In short, we remain hopeful that our business will gradually return to normal in the second half of 2020 underscored by the low inventory level of our tyres manufacturing customers, the palpable stimulus by the Central Government both on the fiscal and monetary fronts, and in the longer run, the potential of the replacement tyres market in the PRC.